ctg. morning brief, 31 aug 2026
On 31 Aug 2026, EU gas stores 63% full in late August, lowest for this week in 13 years. TTF above €68/mwh, more than double January. Goldman: December might need €100+ if hormuz stays shut. Overnight on nwslttr.cz (Substack): the same shock put Czech coal back in the money. They put German clean dark spread at ~5 €/mwh in early June, 28 by month-end, and Czech winter still sending ~1.2 GW into Austria and the Balkans.
Why it matters: The compute story is still a power story. Spain spent yesterday tying data centres to new watts. Europe's winter buffer is a fuel it already decided to bury, and the 2030s still have no replacement. Numbers on coal and the 1.2 GW are theirs.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/29/european-gas-stores-lowest-13-years-eu-price
Covenant, a 2024 US firm also active in israel, plans intermediate-range missiles near Leipzig from 2027. Sources to Reuters: range over 1,500 km, up to 1,000 a year, most parts from Germany and the rest of Europe. Berlin and the company declined to comment. Euronews (30 aug) says a few hundred thousand dollars a shot versus tomahawk around $2m. No contract.
Why it matters: Germany is shopping for cheap mass-produced strike after Washington dropped the tomahawk plan. A plant is not a magazine.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-defence-firm-covenant-plans-missile-production-germany-sources-say-2026-08-28/
Mesko signed a framework on 24 aug for several thousand piorun MANPADS plus hundreds of launchers for Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Norway. Planned execution contracts over 8 bn zł net, more than 80% for the Polish army, safe money, deliveries to 2030. PGZ says output went from ~300 missiles a year to ~1,500, aiming past 2,000. Execution deals targeting MSPO kielce next week.
Why it matters: Safe is no longer a slide. Four states buying as a consortium, one factory in skarżysko. The unglamorous version of European rearmament is a purchase order.
Source: https://mesko.com.pl/aktualnosci/rekordowy-kontrakt-na-pioruna-hit-eksportowy-pgz-wzmacnia-bezpieczenstwo-europy
Buntar Aerospace, Kyiv, raised $10.4m from Axon and Norway's Munkene to scale recon drones and mission software. Defence builder: among Ukraine's six largest disclosed rounds this year.
Why it matters: The capital is getting less cute. Axon makes tasers. Norway is writing cheques into Ukrainian airframes.
Source: https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-drone-maker-lands-10-4-million-funding-round/